Key Takeaways

• Let the party begin: analyst estimates for 2026 S&P 500 price targets
• Fed cuts interest rates again… bond yields remain stubborn
• Oil prices fell meaningfully over the past year, a huge boon to consumers and a help in reducing inflation
• Metal mania: gold, silver, platinum, and palladium spike to new all-time highs?

Stocks closed out 2025 on a relatively flat note, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain of 0.06% in December. For the full year, however, the index delivered an impressive total return of 17.88%, including dividends—truly a strong performance. Most major indexes followed a similar path, finishing solidly in positive territory, including the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000.

Notably, foreign markets produced the strongest returns overall, marking the first time since the early 2000s that international stocks led the way. Considering the sharp market declines experienced in March and early April of last year, the year-end results make this performance all the more remarkable.

Stock Market Returns / December:

Stock Market Returns / Year to Date:

Late December was an interesting—perhaps even a bit comical—time as major Wall Street firms released their 2026 price targets for the S&P 500. While we view this exercise as having limited practical value, we share it here for your reading enjoyment.

It’s worth noting that these targets are set well in advance and are typically revised throughout the year, often at inopportune times. For example, many firms lowered their targets last April, only to raise them again as markets recovered later in the year. For reference, the S&P 500 index closed 2025 at 6,845.50.

• Oppenheimer: 8,100 (most bullish)

• Deutsche Bank: 8,000

• Morgan Stanley: 7,800

• RBC: 7,750

• Goldman Sachs: 7,600

• BNY Wealth: 7,600

• JPMorgan: 7,500

• HSBC: 7,500

• Bank of America: 7,100 (most conservative)

Fed cuts rates, bond yields remain resilient

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on December 10th, yet bond yields have declined only modestly since the move. This suggests the bond market may be pricing in stronger economic growth and potentially higher inflation as we begin 2026—though we believe inflation may initially trend lower.

This dynamic helps explain the disconnect between near-term monetary policy actions and longer-term market expectations for a more resilient economy. As we move further into 2026, bond yields will be important to monitor, particularly the 2-year Treasury note, a key indicator of market expectations for future interest-rate policy.

At year-end, the 2-year yield stood at 3.48%, while the federal funds target range was 3.5%–3.75%, suggesting another rate cut may be likely in the first quarter of 2026.

Oil prices fell significantly over the past year

WTI crude oil closed out 2025 at $58.42 per barrel, a significant decline from early-2025 levels above $80. This drop could prove to be one of the more meaningful benefits for consumers as we move through 2026.

Lower energy prices help keep inflation in check and impact a wide range of everyday goods and services. As a result, this may contribute to some long-awaited price relief in food and other essential items—a welcome development at this stage.

Crude Oil / Year to Date:

Metal mania

As we enter 2026, one of the most notable market stories from the past year has been the extraordinary rise in metals. Gold and silver posted remarkable gains, but the strength was not limited to precious metals—platinum and even copper delivered stellar performances as well.

Undoubtedly, this surge will prompt a wave of articles suggesting now is the time to invest in these assets. We would urge some caution. Historically, it is uncommon for an asset class to generate back-to-back years of outsized gains. While metals could certainly continue to move higher, a more measured pace of appreciation would be the more prudent expectation.

Metals / Year to Date:

As we begin 2026, we remain focused on staying flexible and responsive as conditions evolve rather than making predictions. We wish each and every one of our readers a happy, healthy, and safe year ahead.